Total Tennis Trading

The first of our bonus strategies is the 40-40 Method. This is quite similar to the Fifty-Fifty Method and should be used as an alternative. Many might actually prefer this method since the risk reward ratio is actually very similar and you can normally be done much quicker then with the Fifty-Fifty.

From all the testing we did on the Fifty-Fifty method we noticed that many matches would see a player push through the 1.50 mark and hit 1.40 before hovering between 1.40 and 1.50.

Then we would notice you would very often see that player trade back up to around 1.80-1.90 before going back down and potentially even giving us a losing trade on the Fifty-Fifty.

So with the 40-40 Method we will be aiming to lay the first player to hit 1.40 and then to green up after gaining 40 ticks. So this will mean we will lay the player @ 1.40 and green up @ 1.80.

The exit point remains similar, if the leading player scores another break or trades below 1.18 then you will exit the trade and take the loss across the markets.

The criteria:

  • Men’s & Women’s Matches
  • Minimum Liquidity of £30k+

Odds Range:

  • Pre-match favourite priced @ 1.71 and above

 

The system:

Once you have found a match which fits the odds range and criteria you enter lay orders for both players @ 1.40.

Keep an eye on the price and once the first player trades at 1.40 it is time to keep a close eye on where their price goes next. This will normally happen once the first player has scored a break point.

Once you get matched on one player remember to cancel your order on the other player!

You can put in an order @ 1.80 or just keep a close eye on the match to see where the price ends up. It is not always advised to put in an order @ 1.80 since once the losing player scores a break point back you might see the price bounce back up higher then 1.80 which will give you some bonus ticks.

If the leading player scores another break point or trades lower then 1.18 then exit the trade immediately.

The only time we will take a loss on this trade is if the price carries on going down. This would only happen if the player is literally destroying their opponent. This will be quite rare as it’s not often that two closely matched players will end up having a one sided contest.

In many cases you could be done and dusted with this trade within a few games.

Advanced Method:

Some of our members and traders are finding that you can feasibly repeat this trade more then once during a match and on both players too. Some matches swing from side to side and in the Women’s matches you will often see them score a break point and then be broken in the next match which will see their odds swing all over the place!

Just be sure that once you hit the exit point in the trade you dont enter the markets again as its not good to chase losses.

 

 Real Life Examples:

Here is an ATP match between Beck & Goffin which is a comfortable qualifier in both the odds range and the amount matched (£77k). So once the match is underway, we enter our lay bets of 1.40 on both players.

In only the first game of the match, Beck scores  a break point and we get matched @ 1.40. Notice from the screen shot how the price immediately bounced back up above 1.40 which shows that currently 1.40 is a good support point to look for in the market.

Its the end of the first set and Beck has held on to his break of serve to win the first set. As you can see his price has only steamed in by 8 ticks. If you don’t fancy that Goffin will play well in the second set you could just exit this trade now for a small loss.

The second set begins and Goffin scores an early break which results in Beck’s price shooting back up to around 1.80. We green up once we get matched at 1.80 and we have just gained 40 ticks!

This chart shows how Beck’s price moved during that trade. You can see circled, the entry point and the exit points of the trade.

16 Comments for this entry

  • admin says:

    Any questions or queries feel free to add them here!

  • pastybob says:

    Wish you’d have mentioned this earlier.
    I used the 50-50 method on the Beck v Goffin game above and ended making a small loss.
    I suppose it’s evidence that 40-40 will sometimes work better than 50-50.

    Also, I’m not convinced that the risk/reward ratio is similar to 50-50. Admittedly, your chances of winning with 40-40 are increased but if you risked the same amount on each trade, the 50-50 pays a lot more ticks.

  • Goh says:

    Hi what is the strike rate I can expect from this method if I do not do any pre-match analysis and just select any match that fulfils the criteria?

  • Alf says:

    Using http://www.arbcruncher.com/back-lay-betting-calculator.asp I can see that:

    -Laying 100 pounds at 1.4 and backing at 1.8 > You make 21.11
    – Laying 100 pounds at 1.4 and backing at 1.18 > You lose 17.71
    – Basically you need a strike rate higher than 45.62% to make a profit

    When you say that you expect to win around 66% of the time, why are you making this assumption? Are there any kind of statistics to prove it? Or is it because your experience? Do you select matches only based on odds and liquidity? No need to make more analysis?

    • admin says:

      Hi Alf,

      This was what we found in the data sample of 5000 Betfair tennis charts. So the future really does look bright for this method.

      We have found that no analysis is needed but you should watch the match you are trading to see how the player you are laying is performing.

      • paul harney says:

        hi

        is it conceivable to use both of these methods (50-50 and 40-40) on the same match?

        • admin says:

          Hi Paul,

          Yes, ou could potentially use the 40/40 side of things to try and eliminate the liability while you try and get your 50/50 bet matched. How you stake for this will have to be something you work out yourself though.

          Hope that helps

  • andrew says:

    Not really convinced about this method. Over the last 100 matches that qualified i’ve had a 40% win strike for a loss of £400 to £100 stakes. In other words roughly £920 in winnings and £1320 in losses. Net loss £400. Anyone else got any figures?
    Andrew

    • admin says:

      Hi Andrew,

      Does sound like a bad run there. Are you watching these matches as you trade with this method? Also, filtering it to only using it on grand slams and other important tournaments will be a big help also since in the smaller tournaments some players just give up once they go behind, whereas grand slams they will be fighting hard to stay in the battle.

      Watching the match when using this method is a huge help as you can see just how interested the players are in it.

      Hope this helps you Andrew

  • andrew says:

    Thanks for reply,
    I have been using it in accordance with your rules above. Liquidity 30k+; pre fav 1.71+ and using mens & womans matches. Its mainly wimbledon that has been poor so far. so i will see how i go for the next couple of grand slams.
    Andrew

  • SILVANASISKOV says:

    Hi,
    For any method that you mentioned, does it matter if it’s 3 or 5 set match? Does any method works better for 3 sets than for 5 set match?