The Fifty-Fifty Method™
The second strategy from our Intermediate strategies manual is the Fifty-Fifty Method.
Note: Please note we have an excellent alternative to this method entitles the 40-40 method in the Extras section.
The main thing that we noticed from studying over 5000 in-play tennis match graphs is how you often see both players become the favourite to win the match at some stage. This is what makes Tennis such a great sport to trade as there are so many opportunities but its obviously not as easy as just laying one player and then hoping for the best!
With this method we will be aiming to Lay both players at the same odds to lock in equal profit on both outcomes.
We looked over all the tennis matches and noticed that both players traded at odds of 1.50 most often compared to the other odds ranges we looked at (1.40, 1.30, 1.25 etc). We eventually narrowed it down to a particular starting price odds range. We devised a system to ensure that you can profit using this strategy in the long term as you also have to have a stop loss point to the trade too.
So the Fifty-Fifty Method got its name as we are aiming to lay both players @ 1.50 but by risking less then we can potentially make.
- Men’s & Women’s Matches
- Minimum Liquidity of £30k+
- Pre-match favourite priced @ 1.71 and above
Once you have found a match which fits the odds range and criteria you enter lay orders for both players @ 1.50.
Keep an eye on the price and once the first player trades at 1.50 it is time to keep a close eye on where their price goes next.
If you see that players price rises back above 2.0 and then the opposing player gets matched @ 1.50 too then we have a profitable trade and you can move on to the next match.
If that players price rises above 2.0 and then starts to go back down then we will see if the price reaches 1.50 again. If it does then we will exit this trade for almost no loss. This is because it’s now looking more likely that this player has the match under control.
The only time we will take a loss on this trade is if the price carries on going down. This would only happen if the player is literally destroying their opponent. If this scenario was to occur then you will close this trade and take a loss once their price reaches anything between 1.10-1.19. This will be quite rare as it’s not often that two closely matched players will end up having a one sided contest.
Real Life Examples:
We have a match between Cibulkova and Kuznetsova in the WTA which fits our specifications.
We place our lay orders @ 1.50 on both players and see who gets matched first!
Half way through the first set and Cibulkova is playing quite well. She soon trades below 1.50 after scoring a break point and our first order is taken.
This is obviously a match between two close players and soon Kuznetsova starts playing well. She breaks back and Cibulkova has traded back up to 2.0. Remember, from now on if Cibulkova drops back to 1.50 we will just exit this trade for no loss. We are effectively in a RISK FREE position with this trade if we stick to our rules.
Kuznetsova carries on playing well and earns herself some break points. She misses the break points but that doesn’t matter to us as it was enough to push her odds down to 1.50 and we now have £50 green on both outcomes! Its worth noting that all this was done in the first set alone!
We have a qualifying match between Kvitova and Hantuchova in the WTA at Eastbourne.
We place both our lay bets in once the match begins.
The match begins and Kvitova is our first player to get matched @ 1.50. We will now keep a close eye on proceedings.
Kvitova’s odds soon rise again and hit the 2 mark. We now look to see where they go next. Once they hit 2 we know we aren’t going to lose money on this trade in the very least.
Kvitova soon ups her game again and scores another break point. Her odds soon drop back to 1.50 and we exit for a scratch trade which means we lose virtually nothing as you can see. At least we have protected our bank and we can move on to the next trade.
Here we have a match where Rodina is the favourite and priced above 1.71.
We lay both players at 1.50.
Rodina is the first one to get matched @ 1.50. Rodina will go on and win the first set and trade as low as 1.25 going into the second set. Very close to our stop loss point but we hang on and don’t panic!
It is now deep into the second set and the odds have finally come back to around 2.0. From here, we will see where the odds move next. If they go back down to 1.50 then we will scratch this trade.
No need to scratch this trade as Savchuk breaks in the third set and we have finally been matched on both sides for £50 profit. This trade took much longer then normal to be complete but its important to remain patient when using this method.
When It Goes Wrong?
Losing is part and parcel of trading and its important to be prepared for losing trades. Below is a losing trade and one of our worst case scenarios with this method.
Here we have a match which fits the criteria between Dudi Sela & Santiago Giraldo. So we enter our lay orders and observe the first set.
Giraldo has started the match well and soon scores a break point and we get matched @ 1.50 on him. He is playing pretty well in this match too which is a bit of a worry.
Our worst fears are confirmed as Giraldo wins the first set and then begins to dominate the second set too. His odds drop below 1.19 and so we exit this trade for a £30 loss.
This isn’t so bad as it underlines that we are risking less then we can potentially win which is the main way to profit from trading.
This is a really simple trading strategy and you should see a 72% strike rate when sticking to the system rules which is more then enough to make a good long term profit as you only need a 60% strike rate to be profitable. As you can see from our examples we are risking around £30 to win £50 which is a return of near to 175%!