Total Tennis Trading

The Fifty-Fifty Method

The second strategy from our Intermediate strategies manual is the Fifty-Fifty Method.

Note: Please note we have an excellent alternative to this method entitles the 40-40 method in the Extras section.

The main thing that we noticed from studying over 5000 in-play tennis match graphs is how you often see both players become the favourite to win the match at some stage. This is what makes Tennis such a great sport to trade as there are so many opportunities but its obviously not as easy as just laying one player and then hoping for the best!

With this method we will be aiming to Lay both players at the same odds to lock in equal profit on both outcomes.

We looked over all the tennis matches and noticed that both players traded at odds of 1.50 most often compared to the other odds ranges we looked at (1.40, 1.30, 1.25 etc). We eventually narrowed it down to a particular starting price odds range. We devised a system to ensure that you can profit using this strategy in the long term as you also have to have a stop loss point to the trade too.

So the Fifty-Fifty Method got its name as we are aiming to lay both players @ 1.50 but by risking less then we can potentially make.

The criteria:

  • Men’s & Women’s Matches
  • Minimum Liquidity of £30k+

Odds Range:

  • Pre-match favourite priced @ 1.71 and above

 

The system:

Once you have found a match which fits the odds range and criteria you enter lay orders for both players @ 1.50.

 

Keep an eye on the price and once the first player trades at 1.50 it is time to keep a close eye on where their price goes next.

 

If you see that players price rises back above 2.0 and then the opposing player gets matched @ 1.50 too then we have a profitable trade and you can move on to the next match.

 

If that players price rises above 2.0 and then starts to go back down then we will see if the price reaches 1.50 again. If it does then we will exit this trade for almost no loss. This is because it’s now looking more likely that this player has the match under control.

 

The only time we will take a loss on this trade is if the price carries on going down. This would only happen if the player is literally destroying their opponent. If this scenario was to occur then you will close this trade and take a loss once their price reaches anything between 1.10-1.19. This will be quite rare as it’s not often that two closely matched players will end up having a one sided contest.

 

 

Real Life Examples:

 

Example 1:

We have a match between Cibulkova and Kuznetsova in the WTA which fits our specifications.

We place our lay orders @ 1.50 on both players and see who gets matched first!

Half way through the first set and Cibulkova is playing quite well. She soon trades below 1.50 after scoring a break point and our first order is taken.

This is obviously a match between two close players and soon Kuznetsova starts playing well. She breaks back and Cibulkova has traded back up to 2.0. Remember, from now on if Cibulkova drops back to 1.50 we will just exit this trade for no loss. We are effectively in a RISK FREE position with this trade if we stick to our rules.

Kuznetsova carries on playing well and earns herself some break points. She misses the break points but that doesn’t matter to us as it was enough to push her odds down to 1.50 and we now have £50 green on both outcomes! Its worth noting that all this was done in the first set alone!

Example 2:

We have a qualifying match between Kvitova and Hantuchova in the WTA at Eastbourne.

We place both our lay bets in once the match begins.

The match begins and Kvitova is our first player to get matched @ 1.50. We will now keep a close eye on proceedings.

Kvitova’s odds soon rise again and hit the 2 mark. We now look to see where they go next. Once they hit 2 we know we aren’t going to lose money on this trade in the very least.

Kvitova soon ups her game again and scores another break point. Her odds soon drop back to 1.50 and we exit for a scratch trade which means we lose virtually nothing as you can see. At least we have protected our bank and we can move on to the next trade.

Example 3:

Here we have a match where Rodina is the favourite and priced above 1.71.

We lay both players at 1.50.

Rodina is the first one to get matched @ 1.50. Rodina will go on and win the first set and trade as low as 1.25 going into the second set. Very close to our stop loss point but we hang on and don’t panic!

It is now deep into the second set and the odds have finally come back to around 2.0. From here, we will see where the odds move next. If they go back down to 1.50 then we will scratch this trade.

No need to scratch this trade as Savchuk breaks in the third set and we have finally been matched on both sides for £50 profit. This trade took much longer then normal to be complete but its important to remain patient when using this method.

When It Goes Wrong?

Losing is part and parcel of trading and its important to be prepared for losing trades. Below is a losing trade and one of our worst case scenarios with this method.

Here we have a match which fits the criteria between Dudi Sela & Santiago Giraldo. So we enter our lay orders and observe the first set.

Giraldo has started the match well and soon scores a break point and we get matched @ 1.50 on him. He is playing pretty well in this match too which is a bit of a worry.

Our worst fears are confirmed as Giraldo wins the first set and then begins to dominate the second set too. His odds drop below 1.19 and so we exit this trade for a £30 loss.

This isn’t so bad as it underlines that we are risking less then we can potentially win which is the main way to profit from trading.

Conclusion:

This is a really simple trading strategy and you should see a 72% strike rate when sticking to the system rules which is more then enough to make a good long term profit as you only need a 60% strike rate to be profitable. As you can see from our examples we are risking around £30 to win £50 which is a return of near to 175%!

Remember you can ask any questions or suggest any ideas in the comments box below!

13 Comments for this entry

  • StuartMatthews says:

    Hi
    Not sure if I am missing something, but why, once the first lay bet gets taken and then the odds rise back up to 2.0 do you state”we are not going to lose money at the very least”? Am i missing something. We don’t have to do anything at that point do we? As afr as the instructions state we just put in two lay bets at 1.5. So what would happen if the odds after taking the first lay bet , then hit 2.0 but then went back down? we would still loose?
    Sorry if being a bit thick, but I really want to get into the tennis trading as I find my football trading so unpredictable at the moment.
    Stuart

    • Mark-SES says:

      Hi Stuart,

      This is because once the odds hit 2.0 we are going to exit the trade if it drops back below 1.50. So you will be ready to exit the trade if that player dropped back to around 1.50.

      The odds on tennis dont move that fast and you will easily be able to see the odds dropping back so you can exit before it quit hits 1.50 and lose nothing.

      • StuartMatthews says:

        Mark

        Ahh, okay. I was worried I had missed something. Thanks for that. Really looking forward to testing these methods out in the coming months.

        Thanks

        Stuart

  • Steven McKay says:

    Hi, I have just joined after enjoying your soccer trading strategies and had great success with the only method i stuck with and that was the golden goal method. I made a few adjustments to the method myself including carrying on laying the c/s right down to the end of the game. Amazing how many times 1.10 was traded and lost. Never realised how many goals were scored in the 90th + minute. Anyway the winter season is now over and i am looking to trade on tennis. Have been trying a bit with small stakes on the Monte Carlo open and had some success mainly laying the receiver when he was 15/30 up or 30/40 up. If the server wins the next point you get a minimum of 5 ticks.

    I like your 50/50 strategy, don’t you think it would be better to green up when the player you have laid at 1.5 hits $2 rather than wait for the opponent to hit 1.50? I realise it halves your profit for the same risk as the 50/50 method but would give you more winning matches. Anyway food for thought and look forward to reading the rest of your strategies.

    Cheers

    • admin says:

      Hi Steven,

      Thanks for the comment, that is something you can do also but be sure to check out the 40/40 method first as that is quite similar to what you just suggested.

      Hope you enjoy!

  • Mikkel says:

    Hey there
    I love this system and i think your product is killer.

    I have a question though.
    As we wait for one of the players to get matched at 1.5, I would suspect that this player is on a roll, and could with some efficiency drop below the stop loss at 1.19.
    -1.10

    You say that odds wont move that fast down in a tight match/small fav match, but the question that rises is:

    -At what time of the match is it too dangerous to wait for the matched player to come back at around 2 if it haven´t happened, say in mid 2. set of a 3 setter? The odds could begin to drop fast when the game is closing down.

    Best regards

    Mikkel of Denmark

    • admin says:

      Hi Mikkel,

      You are right, if it gets late in the 2nd set then you will have to be very quick on the draw when exiting. The good thing about tennis is the odds only move along with the points so the prices will never suddenly shoot past your stop loss unless right at the end in the final game or something like that. Just watch the prices carefully and exit when you see the exit point approaching.

      You could just exit at the end of the first set if you have not had a winning trade, this way you make a very small loss usually but some nice big wins. The main appeal being that you do not spend all match trying to get both matched @ 1.50.

  • JohnR says:

    Hi Mark,

    I am struggling slightly with the 50/50. Just to clarify – all we are doing is putting in the two lay orders at 1.50 in a match which fits the criteria. After that, the only reason we continue to watch is to exercise the stop-loss?

    Otherwise, it’s just a case of hoping that both lay orders are matched for guaranteed profit – am I correct?

    I just don’t see how we can be certain that we are not going to make a loss once the matched lay player hits 2.0, as your explanation says? What am I missing?

    Thanks, John

    • admin says:

      Hi John,

      We can be certain of not making a loss once the odds rise to 2 since you will be exiting if the odds do go back down to 1.50. As long as you exit @ 1.50 or above then you will take no loss on the trade.

      So once those odds hit 2 its either a matter of the other player getting matched @ 1.50 (winner), or the odds going back to our entry point of 1.50 (break even).

      Hope that makes it a bit clearer.

  • StuKid says:

    Hi,

    I just tried this method on the wimbledon game between Li Na and A. Radwanska.
    I layed both players at 1.50.
    Li Na’s odds first went down to 1.50 and at the end of the set were going back up over 2.0.
    Radwanska finally won the first set at the tie-break and after the win of the first set her odds went down under 1.5 and my lay order at 1.5 was done.
    But at that point I was not greened up.
    What went wrong?
    I am using BetAngel and I never pushed one of the greening up buttons.
    I just entered the 2 lay orders at odds of 1.5 and both were accepted during the first set.
    But my winnings showed 200 for Li Na and -2 for Radwanska.
    I am very sure that I have done everything as explained.

    Pleas help me!!

    • admin says:

      Hi Stukid,

      It sounds like you did everything right from what you wrote but there must have been a mistake somewhere. Could you have a look to see what bets were actually matched?

      Might be best to email for further help on this one, info@totalfootballtrading.com

  • SILVANASISKOV says:

    Hi, yesterday I used this method for the first time and I had 1 winner an 2 losers and today I had 1 winner and 3 losers. Is it normal to expect that kind of result? The problem is that even if one player manages to break the serve and holds their own serve, odds still cant get down to 1.5 at the beginning of the first set if both players are matched at around 2.00.

    • admin says:

      Hi,

      Yes results can vary. Some days you may have many more winners then losers with it, it is best to only judge over a bigger sample size. Also, best to use this strategy on women’s matches.

      Another tip is just to watch and see how the players are playing after you have done your lay. Sometimes it is obvious when a player will get back into the match and sometimes obvious when they won’t.